Who Will Win the 2010 WSOP Main Event?

Predicting the winner of the World Series of Poker Main Event would probably be best left up to Paul the octopus.  But with his recent demise, I have weighed in with my own selections as to who will come out on top from the November Nine.  Keeping in mind that I never saw either Jerry Yang or Joe Cada as having a Republican's chance in California of winning, I'm probably wrong. 

On Lou Krieger's show Keep Flopping Aces, I predicted John Dolan to come in first, with John Racener as my next pick.  Surprisingly, Lou agreed with me and so we have nothing wagered on this outcome -- we're either both geniuses or both the victims of bad luck.  Here's the link to the podcast where Lou and I discuss all nine and make our fearless predictions:  Rounders Radio.  Here's the link to Lou's most recent blog article regarding the final table and our picks:  Keep Flopping Aces.  Please overlook the unnecessarily large picture of me and trust that my hair has moved into the 21st Century.

So why the two Johns?  Let's start with the premise that the chip leader going in is going to take too many risks, overplay his hands, and be the shorter stacks' target early on.  Add to that the fact that Jonathan Duhamel was ridiculously lucky to get all those chips.  That hand against Matt Affleck means Duhamel is out of luck, probably for the rest of his life. He made a bad call that turned into a stunning bad beat for Affleck and gave Duhamel a monstrous stack of chips. It is likely that what the poker gods gave, they will just as soon take away. Here's video of that hand.  Be warned, it's not for the squeamish. And to read more about Duhamel's path to the final nine, click here.



John Dolan reminds me a lot of Allen Cunningham -- he's calm, laid back, all business. I think a cool demeanor will help him at the final table just as it did following what was a disastrous Day 7 where he ended the day 24th out of 27. He fought back on Day 8, winning not by sucking out, a la Duhamel, but by putting it in with the best. And during the six-and-a-half marathon bubble play, he doubled his chip stack by showing fearless aggression -- exactly what he'll need this weekend. For more on how Dolan got to the final table, click here.

I like John Racener's position going into the final table.  He's fourth in chips and so has some chips with which to play, possibly at the expense of the short stacks, and some time before he needs to worry about the big stacks.  He's a solid player who has already amassed good results with four cashes in last year's WSOP and three others this year prior to the Main Eent.  His play was less than stellar the last half of Day 8 and that actually gives him the chance to learn from those mistakes and go to the final table better prepared.  Click here for a recap of Racener's run at the Main Event. 

Who doesn't want Michael Mizrachi to win?  Well, besides the eight other guys at the table, I'd say only Frank Kassela, who will have to share WSOP Player of the Year with Mizrachi if he pulls out that win.  Mizrachi has managed to overcome some problems with Uncle Sam earlier in the year to become the feel-good story of the 2010 WSOP, along with his many brothers.  His nickname "the Grinder" is not ironic and it's that steady play that may compensate for his rather anemic stack going into tomorrow.  With just a little over 14 million, fewer than thirty big blinds, Mizrachi will have to find some good hands early.  But if he does, watch out -- he could spoil Kassela's party.  Click here for the recap of how Mizrachi made it to the final table. 

Up until I watched the ESPN broadcast of Day 8, I couldn't have picked Matthew Jarvis out of a lineup, and I'd already written two articles about him.  He does not have much of a presence, which usually signals doom at a poker table.  On the other hand, he sits in the middle of the pack, which is actually a good place from which to make a move.  And he did show some muscle on Day 6, taking out four opponents before the dinner break.  What we've seen of him on TV shows a solid, deliberate, no frills player.  I should be more bullish on him, but for some reason I'm not.  Click here for my article on how he made it to the final table. 

Joseph "subiime" Cheong should be a favorite.  He sits third in chips, he's a darn good player, and he's even had success in the interim since making the final table.  Yet I don't see the killer instinct and bold aggression that the winner is going to need to take this down.  What impressed me -- his unflappability following that cruel bad beat at the hand of Filippo Candio -- maybe his undoing.  Poker players should get riled up from time to time.  He may lack the killer instinct necessary to win it all.  Read my recap of his play here.

Amateur Soi Nguyen has an all-star team of poker friends, but one of the shortest stacks at the table.  Filippo Candio is the first Italian to make it to the final table, but he's used up all his Ave Marias just getting there, as is evidenced by the sick whooping he laid on Cheong:


Finally we have Jason Senti.  I must apologize for mispronouncing his name repeatedly on Lou's show.  Apparently it's sent-eye, not sent-ee.  However you say it, with fewer than fifteen times the big blind, he'll need a good hand pretty soon for us to even worry about having to say his name.  But I like the guy.  He's a rocker, which already makes him a-okay in my book.  Plus, he's has a great, easy-going personality which can be disarming at the table.  If he doubles up quickly, he could be this year's Jerry Yang.