The WSOP Main Event Final Table -- So How's My Predicting

I could have gone back and edited my last blog post, change my predictions, and look like a genius today.  The final two?  Well, that's easy.  Jonathan Duhamel, the overwhelming chip leader going into the final table, and savvy John Racener.  But, in the interest of honesty -- and since I couldn't edit the podcast with Lou Krieger where I made my fearless, and now feckless, prognostication -- let me say, you win some, you lose some.

Here's where I was right.  Soi Nguyen, the only true amateur at the table and one of the smallest chipstacks, did leave first.  Matthew Jarvis also did not make a deep run, as I predicted, but was dealt a cruel hand to be his last.  Jason Senti lasted longer than he should have considering how exceedingly shortstacked he was, and I thought he might move up a couple slots because he is a pretty good player.  Okay, so far, so good. 

Then we get to John Dolan.  The Allen Cunningham doppelganger let me down in a big way.  He went from second in chips to out in sixth place.  Sure, his play cost him some seven million dollars give or take, but he cost me my poker handicapping reputation (which I didn't have and now won't).  He won four of the first sixteen hands and I -- I mean, he -- was looking good.  Then in all started to unravel.  He (pun alert) "flushed" about 13 million chips down the toilet when he tangled with Joseph Cheong.  Dolan had pocket jacks in a hand that Cheong had reraised preflop.  Dolan slow-played his over pair on a ten-high flop, checked again when a queen came on the turn, but a third jack on the river got his attention.  Unfortunately, it also completed a runner-runner nut flush for Cheong. 

He never got anything going and only won a couple small pots, mostly slowly chipping away before letting Jonathan Duhamel finish him off when the now short-stacked Dolan pushed queen-five suited against Duhamel's pocket fours and the board blanked.  My first place finisher was out in sixth place.

I did not expect Candio to do as well as fourth and he probably wouldn't have had Mizrachi not made that ill-timed move with pocket threes.  If you're new to poker, let me tell you pocket threes is not a powerhouse.  If your a poker expert who was this close to player of the year after winning a prestigious bracelet earlier in the year, let me tell you pocket threes is not worth pushing with.  Even against someone you think is gunshy.  Even against someone who just lost half their stack.   Even against someone you know is holding pocket twos (okay, maybe then, but only then).  If you ever see pocket threes again, run as fast as you can in the opposite direction.  They may be the only hand worse than pocket jacks.  But Mizrachi decided to make a move with those threes and paid the price with a disappointing fifth place finish.

But aside from my not being able to pick a poker winner, what I'll remember most from that night were the sick, sick hands that dispatched many of the players.   Matthew Jarvis moved all in with pocket nines, Michael Mizrachi calls with a suited ace-queen.  The flop a decisive queen-eight-queen.  Mizrachi has the hand locked up, right?  Jarvis is on life support.  Until a miraculous nine fall on the turn.  I gasped, everyone collectively gasped and for a moment I thought oxygen masks would fall down from the ceiling.  Then the river.  An ace!!  I turned to the people around me -- did they see what I saw?  Aliens landed, Big Foot attacked, Lindsey Lohan made a good career move.  I wasn't sure I still had a pulse. 

Here's the hand if you haven't seen it yet.  Even if you have, it's like a car accident, you can't not look:


That was the theme for much of the final table.  In another hand that tested how sturdy my heart is,  Jason Senti had battled back from his position as a super short stack to see two players out before him.  He was all in against Joseph Cheong, with ace-king against Cheong's pocket tens.  The flop seemed emphatic (where have I seen that before?) with king-king-queen.  A set of kings should be good.  A set should hold up.  Cheong has just two outs, a ten to make a full house.  Until the turn comes a jack.  Now Cheong has four additional outs, any nine will give him a straight for the win.  The audience again loudly acknowledged the sweat, and then the unthinkable happened again.  A nine of the river turned the loser into a winner and sent another player to the rail. 

There were other sick hands.  Senti earlier had chipped up against Cheong by catching running cards to make a flush after he was way behind after the flop.  Racener doubling through Duhamel when he went heads up way, way behind, ace-queen versus ace-king, and hit the queen on the flop.  All I could think was, live poker is so rigged. 

So congrats to the winner -- you didn't do what I thought you would do and use your huge chip stack to try, unsuccessfully, to bully the table.  And thanks to John Racener for making half my top two prediction come true.